Who to Start Fantasy Football

Understanding Start/Sit Decisions

Every week in fantasy football, you face critical decisions about which players to start and which to bench. These choices can make or break your season. The key is to combine statistical analysis with situational awareness to maximize your scoring potential.

Unlike trades where you have time to think, lineup decisions require quick analysis based on the latest information. Here's how to approach these weekly choices systematically.

Key Factors to Consider

1. Matchup Quality

The opposing defense is often the most critical factor. Look at:

Defensive rankings: How does the opponent rank against that position?
Recent trends: Are they improving or declining?
Game environment: Expected game script and pace

2. Player Volume and Role

Volume is king in fantasy football. Consider:

Snap percentage: How much are they on the field?
Target/touch share: What percentage of opportunities do they get?
Red zone usage: Are they getting scoring opportunities?

3. Recent Performance Trends

Look at the last 3-4 weeks, not just one game. Hot and cold streaks can be real, but don't overreact to single-game performances.

4. Injury and Health Status

Always check the latest injury reports. A questionable tag can mean anything from "definitely playing" to "probably sitting." Look for practice participation trends throughout the week.

Position-Specific Start/Sit Strategy

Quarterbacks

Start QBs facing weak pass defenses or in games with high over/under totals. Weather matters more for QBs than any other position—avoid starting QBs in heavy wind or rain.

Running Backs

Workload is everything. Start RBs getting 15+ touches regardless of matchup. Volume trumps talent at this position. Game script matters—teams winning late run more.

Wide Receivers

Target share is key. WR1s on their team should usually start regardless of matchup. Pay attention to cornerback matchups for your WR2s and WR3s.

Tight Ends

The elite few (Kelce, Andrews, etc.) are auto-starts. For everyone else, look for favorable matchups and target volume. Red zone targets are gold for TEs.

Common Start/Sit Mistakes to Avoid

❌ Overthinking Your Studs

Your first-round picks should start almost every week. Don't get cute and bench elite players due to a tough matchup.

❌ Recency Bias

Don't overreact to one big game or one bad game. Look at the full body of work and underlying metrics.

❌ Chasing Touchdowns

TDs are unpredictable. Focus on volume and opportunity rather than last week's touchdown scorers.

❌ Ignoring Vegas Lines

Game totals and spreads are predictive. Players on favored teams in high-scoring games have better fantasy outlooks.

Making the Final Decision

When you're torn between two players, use this decision framework:

1. Floor vs. Ceiling: Do you need a safe play or a home run?
2. Volume: Who gets more opportunities?
3. Matchup: Who has the easier opponent?
4. Game Script: Who's team is more likely to be winning?
5. Gut Check: After analyzing, trust your instincts

Remember: You won't always make the right call, and that's okay. The goal is to make informed decisions that give you the best chance of success over the long term.

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Key Takeaways

Always start your elite players regardless of matchup
Volume and opportunity matter more than talent for close decisions
Consider matchup, game script, and recent trends together
Don't overthink it—trust your analysis and move forward
Stay updated on injury reports and practice participation