AFC Playoff Race: Patriots & Broncos Both 9-2, Three-Team Battle for Top Seed

The 2025 AFC playoff race has reached unprecedented levels of competition, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos both standing at 9-2 after Week 11, while the Indianapolis Colts remain close behind at 8-2. This three-team battle for the conference's top seed represents one of the most competitive playoff races in recent NFL history.

Updated: November 23, 2025 (After Week 11)

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Current AFC Standings

Top Three Teams

Team	Record	Streak	Conference	Division
New England Patriots	9-2	W8	7-1	AFC East (1st)
Denver Broncos	9-2	W8	7-1	AFC West (1st)
Indianapolis Colts	8-2	W2	6-1	AFC South (1st)

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New England Patriots (9-2)

Eight-Game Winning Streak

The Patriots have transformed from early-season questions to AFC powerhouse with an 8-game winning streak. Their 9-2 record gives them a commanding 3-game lead in the AFC East.

Key Strengths:

• Elite defense
• Balanced offensive attack
• Strong conference record (7-1)
• Easiest remaining schedule among top AFC teams

Remaining Schedule Advantage: The Patriots face the most favorable remaining schedule of the three 9-2/8-2 teams, giving them the inside track to the #1 seed.

Fantasy Impact:

• Patriots DST: Elite streaming option
• Offensive weapons: Emerging value in deep leagues

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Denver Broncos (9-2)

Week 11 Victory Over Chiefs

Denver extended their winning streak to 8 games with a Week 11 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, solidifying their position atop the AFC West with a 2-game lead over the Chargers.

Key Strengths:

• Dominant defense under Sean Payton
• Strong conference record (7-1)
• AFC West control
• Balanced offensive production

Remaining Schedule: Tougher than Patriots but manageable with division games remaining.

Fantasy Impact:

• Broncos DST: Top-tier fantasy defense
• Javonte Williams: RB2 value
• Courtland Sutton: WR2 with upside

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Indianapolis Colts (8-2)

Jonathan Taylor's Historic Season

The Colts' 8-2 record is powered by Jonathan Taylor's MVP-caliber performance: 1,139 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns through 10 games.

Key Strengths:

• Elite RB1 in Jonathan Taylor
• Strong conference record (6-1)
• AFC South dominance (3-0 division)
• Balanced offensive attack

Path to #1 Seed: Must win out and hope for Patriots or Broncos losses.

Fantasy Impact:

• Jonathan Taylor: Elite RB1, league-winner
• Michael Pittman Jr.: Solid WR2
• Colts offense: High-scoring potential

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Playoff Seeding Scenarios

Current Playoff Picture (If Season Ended Today)

AFC Playoff Seeds:

1. New England Patriots (9-2) - #1 Seed
2. Denver Broncos (9-2) - #2 Seed
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-2) - #3 Seed
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) - Division Leader
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-2) - Wild Card #1
6. Buffalo Bills (6-4) - Wild Card #2
7. Baltimore Ravens (5-5) - Wild Card #3

Tiebreaker Analysis

Patriots vs Broncos (Both 9-2):

• Conference record: Both 7-1 (tied)
• Head-to-head: Not yet played
• Strength of victory: Patriots favored
• Remaining schedule: Patriots easier

Winner: Patriots currently hold #1 seed based on tiebreakers

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Remaining Schedule Comparison

New England Patriots (9-2)

Remaining Games:

• Week 12: @ Bengals (3-7)
• Week 13: vs Giants (2-9)
• Week 15: vs Bills (6-4)

Difficulty: Easiest among top 3 teams Projected Wins: 4-5 additional wins likely

Denver Broncos (9-2)

Remaining Games:

• Week 13: @ Commanders
• Week 14: @ Raiders
• Week 15: vs Packers

Difficulty: Moderate Projected Wins: 3-4 additional wins likely

Indianapolis Colts (8-2)

Remaining Games:

• Week 12: @ Chiefs (5-5)
• Week 13: vs Texans
• Week 14: @ Jaguars

Difficulty: Moderate with division games Projected Wins: 3-4 additional wins likely

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Fantasy Football Implications

Must-Start Players from Contenders

Patriots (9-2):

• Patriots DST: Elite fantasy defense
• Emerging offensive weapons

Broncos (9-2):

• Broncos DST: Top-5 fantasy defense
• Javonte Williams: RB2 value
• Courtland Sutton: WR2 option

Colts (8-2):

• Jonathan Taylor: Elite RB1, #1 overall RB
• Michael Pittman Jr.: Consistent WR2
• Colts offense: High-scoring potential

Playoff Schedule Considerations

Weeks 15-17 (Fantasy Playoffs):

• Target players from teams with favorable playoff schedules
• Avoid players facing elite defenses in fantasy playoffs
• Consider playoff-bound teams' motivation levels

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Week 12 Critical Matchups

Colts @ Chiefs (Week 12)

Importance: Colts can gain ground on AFC standings Fantasy Impact: Jonathan Taylor vs struggling Chiefs run defense Playoff Implications: Winner improves playoff positioning

Patriots @ Bengals (Week 12)

Importance: Patriots aim to extend division lead Fantasy Impact: Patriots DST vs struggling Bengals offense Playoff Implications: Patriots can move to 10-2

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Historical Context

Rare Three-Team Race

The 2025 AFC playoff race represents a rare occurrence:

• Two teams at 9-2 after Week 11
• Third team at 8-2 within striking distance
• All three teams leading their divisions
• Conference records nearly identical

Last Similar Race: 2007 AFC featured similar competitive balance

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Key Storylines to Watch

1. Patriots' Remarkable Turnaround

From early-season questions to 9-2 and 8-game winning streak, the Patriots have emerged as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

2. Broncos' Defensive Dominance

Sean Payton's defense has been the foundation of Denver's 9-2 start, creating a blueprint for playoff success.

3. Jonathan Taylor's MVP Campaign

Taylor's historic season (1,139 yards, 15 TDs in 10 games) has the Colts positioned as AFC contenders.

4. Bills' Collapse

Buffalo's fall from 6-2 to 6-4 with consecutive losses has opened the door for the three-team race at the top.

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Playoff Probability

Current Playoff Odds:

• New England Patriots (9-2): 98% playoff probability
• Denver Broncos (9-2): 97% playoff probability
• Indianapolis Colts (8-2): 96% playoff probability

#1 Seed Probability:

• Patriots: 45%
• Broncos: 35%
• Colts: 15%

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Key Takeaways

• Patriots and Broncos both 9-2 with 8-game winning streaks
• Colts at 8-2 remain in striking distance for #1 seed
• Conference records nearly identical (Patriots/Broncos 7-1, Colts 6-1)
• Remaining schedules favor Patriots for #1 seed
• Fantasy impact significant for players on playoff-bound teams
• Week 12-14 will determine final playoff seeding